- Days: Tuesday/Thursday
- Time: 2:00 p.m. - 3:20 p.m.
- Room: CS 213
- Instructor: Rina Dechter
Course Description
One of the main challenges in building intelligent systems is the ability
to reason under uncertainty, and one of the most successful approaches
for dealing with this challenge is based on the framework of Bayesian belief
networks. Intelligent systems based on Bayesian networks are currently
being used in a number of real-world applications including diagnosis,
sensor fusion,
on-line help systems, credit assessment, and data mining.
The objective of this class is to provide an in-depth exposition of
knowledge representation and reasoning under uncertainty using the framework
of belief networks. Both theoretical underpinnings and practical
considerations will be covered, with a special emphasis on
constructing graphical models and on exact and approximate
inference
algorithms. Additional topics include
learning belief network parameters from Data,
dynamic belief networks, reasoning about actions
and planning under uncertainty.
Prerequisites
- Familiarity with basic concepts of probability theory.
- Knowledge of basic computer science, algorithms and programming principles.
- Previous exposure to AI is desirable but not essential.
Tentative Syllabus
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Topic |
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Date |
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Week 1 |
- Introduction: Reasoning about beliefs using Logic and Probability
(Pearl Chapters 1-2)
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9/26 |
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Week 2 |
- Bayesian network representation I:Independence Properties Syntax and
Semantics (Pearl Chapter 3)
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10/3 |
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- Bayesian network representation II: Directed graphical models of
independence
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Week 3 |
- Bayesian network representation III: Undirected graphical models of
independence
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10/10 |
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- Knowledge Engineering of Bayesian networks
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Week 4 |
- Exact inference using variable elimination methods
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10/17 |
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- Complexity of inference tree-width
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Week 5 |
- Distributed inference I: Polytrees and jointrees (Pearl chapter 4)
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10/24 |
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- Distributed inference II: Polytrees and jointrees
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Week 6 |
- Conditioning schemes Hybrids of inference and conditioning
time-space tradeoffs
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10/31 |
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- Canonical models & local representation techniques
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|
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Week 7 |
- Maximal a posteriori computations (MPE, MAP) and their applications
(Pearl chapter )5
|
11/7 |
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- Approximate inference: Stochastistic methods Variables elimination
methods Iterative belief propagation
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|
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Week 8 |
- Learning Bayesian networks
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11/14 |
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Week 9 |
- Decision and control I: Influence diagrams Maximizing expected utility
Dynamic Bayesian networks (Pearl chapter 6)
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11/21 |
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Week 10 |
- Assorted topics: Markov decision processes Inference: Policy iteration,
value iteration Causality and action Students presentation
|
11/28 |
Readings (partial list)
- Dechter, R., "Bucket Elimination: A unifying framework for Reasoning."
- Judea Pearl, Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems.
Heckerman & Breese,
Causal Independence for Probability Assessment and Inference Using Bayesian Networks.
- Boutilier, Friedman, Goldszmidt & Koller,
Context-Specific Independence in Bayesian Networks.
- Dechter,
Bucket Elimination: A Unifying Framework for Probabilistic Inference.
- Dechter, "AAAI98 tutorial on reasoning."
- Heckerman,
A Tutorial on Learning with Bayesian Networks.
- Kjaerulff,
dHugin: A Computational System for Dynamic Time-Sliced Bayesian Networks.
- Pearl,
Causation, Action and Counterfactuals.
- Dechter,
Mini-buckets: a general scheme for approximating inference.
- Darwiche,
Recursive Conditioning: Any-space conditioning
algorithm with treewidth-bounded complexity.
- Darwiche,
Any-space probabilistic inference.
- Darwiche,
On the role of partial differentiation in probabilistic inference.
- Horvitz, Breese, Heckerman, Hovel & Rommelse.
The Lumiere Project: Bayesian User Modeling for Inferring the Goals and Needs of
Software Users.
- Binder, Murphy, Russell.
Space-efficient inference in dynamic probabilistic networks.
- Russell, Binder, Koller, Kanazawa.
Local learning in probabilistic networks with hidden variables.
- Dugad & Desai.
A Tutorial on Hidden Markov Models.
- Friedman, Geiger, Goldszmidt.
Bayesian Network
Classifiers.
- Dechter, R., El Fattah, Y.,
Topological Parameters For Time-Space Tradeoff
- Gagliardi, F.,
Generalizing Variable Elimination In Bayesian Networks
- Rish, I; Dechter, R,
AAAI 2000 Tutorial
Books:
- Judea Pearl. Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems. Morgan
Kaufmann, 1990.
- Finn V. Jensen. An introduction to Bayesian networks. UCL Press,
1996.
- Robert G. Cowell, A. Philip Dawid, Steffen L. Lauritzen, David J.
Spiegelhalter Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems Springer-Verlag, 1999
- Castillo, E.; Gutierrez, J.M.; Hadi, A.S.,
Expert Systems and Probabilistic Network Models, Springer-Verlag 1997
Free Software
Related Links
Assignments:
There will be homework assignments and students will also be engaged in
projects.
Grading Policy:
Homeworks and projects (50%), midterm (50%)
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